My Top 10 MVP Candidates Heading Into Week 7

I am ranking my top 10 MVP candidates heading into Week 7 of the NFL season. Current Vegas odds for each player are listed in parentheses. All stats provided by ESPN. 

10. Justin Herbert (+3000) 

I placed a pre-season bet on Herbert to win MVP at +2000 which isn’t looking too hot. Herbert remains in the top 10 due to his ability to light up the stat sheet. Despite only playing in 5 games (Chargers had a bye in Week 5), Herbert ranks T-9th with 9 passing TDs, 6th in passing yards per game with 266.6, 7th in completion rate at 68.7%, and he only has 2 INTs. The fact that the Chargers defense has been terrible will allow him to continue to air it out (Chargers allow the most passing yards per game in the league). If Herbert were to make a miraculous comeback to win this award, he would have to put the 2-3 Chargers on his back and lead them to a playoff berth. 

9. Brock Purdy (+1000) 

Call me a Brock Purdy hater if you want, but I think he is a good QB. Not elite. He has learned Shanahan’s complex offensive scheme masterfully, makes quick decisions, takes care of the football, and gets the ball to his playmakers. He currently ranks 12th in passing yards with 1,396, 12th in completion rate at 67.5%, 8th in TDs with 10, and his 1 INT is tied for the lowest in the league amongst starting QBs. However, I would argue he is the 3rd most valuable player on this offense behind Christian McCaffrey and Trent Williams. Another fact to take into consideration is that the Niners rank at the top of the league every season in yards after the catch because Shanahan is an offensive mastermind and creates opportunities for his star players to get the ball in space. This scheme is the most QB-friendly in all of football, but like I said, Purdy is running the offense extremely well. Purdy was exposed last week against Cleveland once CMC, Williams, and Deebo Samuel all got beat up, but Cleveland has an elite defense and the weather was poor. If Purdy balls out against Minnesota without some of his star playmakers, he will move up my list. 

8. Christian McCaffrey (+2500) 

I really wanted to put CMC higher on my list, but the oblique injury gives me some concerns. I believe he is the engine that runs this offense, and since San Francisco acquired him, they have only lost three times, one being in the NFC Championship game in which the Niners were out of QBs. He is clearly the best back in the league due to his ability to run through contact, make people miss, and be an elite threat as a receiver. He is currently averaging 5 yards per carry with 553 rushing yards, which is 1st in the league. Travis Etienne is second, trailing CMC by 49 yards while also playing in an extra game. CMC also has 27 catches for 177 yards and 9 total TDs. He is currently on pace for over 2,000 total yards and a ridiculous 25 TDs. He has scored a TD in 15 straight games and is closing in on LaDainian Tomlinson’s record of 18 straight. 

7. Tyreek Hill (+4000) 

Here is another guy that I wanted to put much higher on the list, but it seems impossible for a WR to win the MVP award if Cooper Kupp fell short after his historic 2021 triple crown season. Tyreek is the most electrifying player in football and currently has 42 catches for 814 yards (1st in the league by a mile) and 6 TDs. Tyreek has an outside chance to eclipse 1,000 yards in only 7 games if he can get 186 against an Eagles secondary that has struggled at times this season. He has a great chance to be the first WR to ever have 2,000 yards in a season, but even if he were to do so, the MVP would most likely go to his QB Tua Tagovailoa (more on him later). 

6. Lamar Jackson (+1400) 

Lamar is the other player I bet on to win the MVP before the season started because when Lamar is healthy, this team wins football games. The Ravens are currently 4-2 but had a realistic chance to be 6-0 if it weren’t for a few late game collapses. The stats don’t look very impressive, but if you have watched the Ravens this year, you would know how poorly his receiving corps has played, including 7 drops in a loss to the Steelers. Lamar is 17th in passing yards with 1,253, 3rd in completion rate at 69.9%, T-24th in TD passes with 5, and only has 3 INTs. He does lead all QBs in rushing with 327 yards and 4 TDs. I expect the Ravens to hit their stride offensively in the second half of the season, and if they can win the AFC North behind a healthy Lamar Jackson, he will be in the conversation. 

5. Jalen Hurts (+900) 

Hurts ranks this high out of respect for almost winning the award last year, but he hasn’t played at the same level this season. He is currently 10th in passing yards with 1,542, 14th in passing TDs with 7, and 10th in completion rate at 66.2%. However, he has 7 INTs, which is T-2nd most in the league and more than he had all of last season. He has added another 253 yards and 5 TDs on the ground (thanks to the unstoppable “Brotherly Shove”). Despite all the talk that the Eagles haven’t been the same team they were last year, they are still 5-1 and have a legit shot to get the 1 seed in the NFC. If Hurts can find his groove, which I think he will due to his impeccable work ethic, he can take home the MVP award. 

4. Jared Goff (+2000) 

Jared Goff has looked like a first overall pick since the Lions went on their hot streak midway through the 2022 season. Over his last 20 games, Goff has amassed 5,308 yards, 33 TDs, and 8 INTs with a 102.2 passer rating. This season, Goff is 6th in passing yards with 1,618, 5th in completion rate at 69.5%,T-5th in passing TDs with 11, and 3 INTs. He has played lights out for the 5-1 Detroit Lions. When a fresh face enters the MVP conversation, the hype starts to build. Voter fatigue starts to kick in. If the Lions were to win 12+ games and make a push for the NFC’s top seed behind Jared Goff, he has a legit chance to win his first MVP award.  

3. Patrick Mahomes (+300) 

Mahomes only ranks this high because he has earned that respect. Based purely on his play this season, I am surprised he is the co-favorite to win the award according to oddsmakers. He is 8th in passing yards with 1,593, 8th in completion rate at 68.3%, and T-5th in TDs with 11. Mahomes has thrown 5 INTs, which is high for him at this point of the season. Although the offense hasn’t been firing on all cylinders yet, the Chiefs are still 5-1 and will most likely earn the AFC’s top seed once again. The +300 line is more of a projection that Mahomes will go on a tear the back half of the season and be atop the league in all major statistical categories. 

2. Josh Allen (+700) 

Josh Allen has played phenomenal for Buffalo for the most part of the season with only the New York teams able to contain him. Allen is 9th in passing yards with 1,576, 1st in completion rate at 71.7%, 2nd in passing TDs with 13, and has thrown 6 INTs. He has added 131 yards and 3 TDs on the ground, which is low for Allen standards (Buffalo clearly wants to limit the designed runs and keep him healthy). The Bills sit at 4-2, which is 1 game back from the Miami Dolphins (whose only loss was a beatdown from the Bills). If Buffalo were to win the AFC East and become the top seed in the AFC, Allen has a great shot to win the award. He has come close to winning before, and if he were to outduel Tua the rest of the way, specifically in their 2nd matchup, he could become the favorite. 

1. Tua Tagalavoia (+300) 

Tua is the clear favorite in my eyes, leading the most prolific offense since the “Greatest Show on Turf” St. Louis Rams. He leads the league with 1,876 passing yards, sits 3rd with a 71.1% completion rate, is T-1st with 14 passing TDs, and has thrown 5 INTs. Tua is one of, if not the, most accurate QBs in football, and I find it pretty ridiculous that so many people want to say that most QBs would be producing at this level in this offense. Tua was an elite prospect out of Alabama due to his ball placement and touch, and that has translated beautifully in the NFL. My only concerns with Tua are obviously his health, and if he can keep it up against the top teams in the league. Tua and the 5-1 Dolphins have a big test this upcoming Sunday night in Philadelphia.

Where did I go right and wrong? Comment below. Embrace debate!