Each year, the NFL MVP award is a heated topic of conversation, this year particularly so. What makes these debates so entertaining is that there are multiple sound arguments for many candidates, along with a variety of factors to consider. Each factor also needs context, as stat sheets or a Win/loss record alone aren’t enough to support an argument, especially in a team sport. In this opinion piece, I will explore the facts at hand while also acknowledging nuance and circumstances. I also acknowledge that the award is as much of a popularity contest as anything else. The MVP is not often given to the most objectively deserving athlete; said athlete’s popularity and fan support play a significant role in what is, after all, an entertainment business. That being said, there is a reason why Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen was the consensus MVP favorite for a significant portion of this year. As things stand, I believe he should win Most Valuable Player. For argument’s sake, this piece will primarily focus on THIS regular season, as that is what is most relevant here. I will be primarily examining the two most likely players to win, that being Allen and Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson.
In terms of this argument, some backstory is required to consider Buffalo’s current starting roster. Let’s wind the clocks back to this past offseason. The Bills, after a routine loss to the Kansas City Chiefs during the Divisional Round, had all but reached their expiration date in the eyes of many fans and pundits. After four years of the dynamic duo of Allen & star wideout Stefon Diggs, the experiment had run its course. A core group made largely of aging veterans was unable to get the job done, and with the ever-present cap space looming over general manager Brandon Beane’s shoulder, it seemed change was in order. The Bills, a cohesive group with very little turnover during the last few years, essentially scrapped their roster. Gone was Diggs, who was no longer worth the hassle of placating. Gone was hot-and-cold number two receiver Gabe Davis, along with Veteran center Mitch Morse. Both starting safeties also went their separate ways, with Jordan Poyer joining the Dolphins and Micah Hyde having just retired at the time of this publication, after taking a year off. Lockdown corner Tre’Davious White was traded to the Rams, with prolific pass rusher Leonard Floyd joining the 49ers, just to name a few.
Josh Allen, since the arrival of Diggs, had enjoyed a masterclass in professional development that rocketed him to the top of the league. What the Bills’ front office has lacked in certain areas, they more than made up for in player development. Allen had played his prime years up until the start of the season with essentially the same core group of players. Now, the former team captains had mostly all left, with his top two receivers no longer present. At the start of the season, only Allen and 3rd year linebacker Terrel Bernard were named as captain. The question that loomed in everyone’s minds: how would Allen perform without Diggs and Davis? Was a number one threat in Diggs the sole reason for Allen’s success, or could he survive without him?
Coming into this season, Buffalo’s wide receiver corps consisted of career journeyman Mack Hollins, Marquez Valdez-Scantling (a borderline liability with the Chiefs last year), Curtis Samuel (a player who has been unproductive for the majority of the 2024 regular season), rookie Keon Coleman, and mainly slot receiver Khalil Shakir. Of that group, only Shakir was known to be a solid player, and even he was not and is still not a true WR1. So, Allen, on paper, was tasked to work with an amalgamation of wide receiver 2’s, 3’s, and a rookie. Of that group of five, only Shakir had ever played a single snap for the Bills. Even though the in-season acquisition of Amari Cooper certainly helped, Cooper has been injured as often as he has been healthy, and has not played many games with his new team. He has best served as a decoy, with paltry stats compared to what was hoped for. The Bills were so pedestrian on paper that they were projected by many to finish third in their own division, behind the streaking Miami dolphins and the Madden team (on paper) in the Jets, a potential Super Bowl team. This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Bills, and there is no shame in that, as it had not happened in some time except in Allen’s early years. What Allen did this year comes nothing short of vastly exceeding all expectations, often single handedly. He had the best season of his career, and it was no accident.
Allen had his fifth straight season of 4000+ yards and 40+ touchdowns, a feat never duplicated. The Bills scored 30 or more points in 12 games this season. Most importantly, Allen eliminated his largest weakness, turnovers. He protected the football and amassed 41 total touchdowns with only six interceptions. With that in mind, let’s dive into some common considerations when comparing players.
Important to note first are head to head wins. These, along with individual stats, are discussed first in MVP debates. In this category, Josh Allen has defeated both the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs, the number one seed in each of their respective conferences. This was a feat no other quarterback accomplished this season. The Chiefs, as vulnerable as they may have looked, had not lost since Christmas Day of 2023 until they played the Bills in November of 2024. The Lions, the boogeyman of the NFL, were defeated in a game they never held the lead in. Depleted defense or not, Detroit was destroying everyone in their path with the number one offense in the league. We must also recognize that head to head wins alone are not the only factor at play here, as wins and losses are largely team stats. For example, Lamar Jackson defeated Josh Allen, but also lost to Gardner Minshew and Jameis Winston, who played for two of the worst teams in the league. Saquon Barkley and the Eagles lost to the Falcons and then-starting quarterback Kirk Cousins, who ultimately got benched. Does that mean Barkley should not warrant serious MVP consideration? Of course not. One can see the logical fallacies that occur when relying on head to head wins alone. Allen is not exempt. He defeated Mahomes and Lions quarterback Jared Goff in sensational individual performances, but lost badly to the Ravens early on in the year. Yet, with the caliber of his wins and record, I believe it helps his case more than it hurts.
Secondly to consider, and what I’d argue to be most important, is how VALUABLE a player is to his team. Isn’t that what an MVP is? What would the team look like without this person’s presence? Admittedly, I would give the edge in this department to Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe burrow. Burrow led the league in passing yards and touchdowns, yet his supporting cast (namely defense) was so dreadful he has not been considered the top candidate. While Burrow was incredibly valuable to his team, it did not translate to the win column, with the Bengals narrowly missing the playoffs with a 9-8 record. While unfair, an athlete does himself no favors over the competition if his respective team does not at least make the postseason. That’s just how the dance seems to go.
The athlete with the best argument against Allen for MVP is Jackson. Jackson had his best statistical season, and on paper beats out Allen in a variety of stats, including completion percentage, interception percentage, etc, though many numbers are close. He has been a force, and while I believe Allen thus far in his career has been a better, more consistent player, we must focus on the 2024 regular season. The Bills were a better team in terms of record, despite losing to Baltimore head-to-head. Buffalo did not lose to clearly inferior teams, something Baltimore did twice. More importantly, nobody did more with less than Josh Allen. Admittedly, his supporting cast was not quite as awful as expected. His offensive line was top ten in the league, with Allen being sacked the least out of any quarterback. But his weapons’ play is a product of his own. That is what great quarterbacks do, they elevate those around them. Jackson, while he did not have the offensive firepower of, say, the Philadelphia Eagles, still had an edge in quite a few categories. He had the great equalizer, Derrick Henry, second only to Saquon Barkley in terms of play and productivity. Defenses cannot afford to not respect him, and a truly great running back opens up the pass game tremendously. While Buffalo had a great trio of backs, none of them are comparable to Henry. Jackson’s top receivers were also better. Top target Zay Flowers eclipsed 1000 yards, while none of Allen’s weapons were even remotely close outside of Shakir with 821. In fact, no Bills receiver except Shakir gained over 600 receiving yards. Injuries play a role, but every team deals with them. Ravens Tight End Marc Andrews, although he had somewhat of a down year, is better than any tight end on Buffalo’s roster. Bills’ second year tight end Dalton Kincaid only cracked 400 receiving yards to lead their tight end group. Andrew’s, statistical down year or not, is inarguably the best tight end on either roster, and is known to be among the best in the league. So, the Ravens have a better tight end, a better receiver room, and a better running back. They also boast nine Pro Bowlers, compared to Buffalo’s two. Lamar Jackson is a phenomenal talent, but he’s not working with the same tools Allen is. A quarterback’s job is made easier by the roster around him, and their statistics will reflect that. This is similar to why there was such debate surrounding 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy during the 2023 season. How good was he, really? With elite talent at every position, it’s tough to isolate variables. While Jackson is certainly better than Purdy, it is still a valid point to consider.
The Ravens, in the back half of the season, also maintained a defense better than the Bills. Baltimore was elite against the run, and also played excellent against the pass, led by All-Pro Marlon Humphrey. Against opponents with quality offenses, like the Rams or Lions, the Bills defense crumbled, giving up nearly 500 passing yards alone against the latter. It could be said that Allen was under more duress given the state of the other side of the ball. Jackson, while statistically better in many categories, is not better by much. Edge in statistics versus edge in roster. I believe that what Allen is doing with an inferior receiving corps and an inferior running game is more impressive. There is a reason why the biggest criticism of Buffalo coming into the year was that Allen would have little help. He IS their team. They rely on him like no other group besides Cincinnati. The game is either won or lost based on how he plays, as he doesn’t have the surrounding star power or defense to bail him out against competitive teams. At least, not like Philadelphia or even the Chiefs have. Thus, critics label this style of play to be unsustainable, as it certainly can be and has been for the Bills. Remove Lamar Jackson and the offense still has that star power that a defense must respect. Henry alone is a massive advantage. Buffalo’s receivers struggled all season to get separation in man coverage. In comparison, Baltimore’s wide receivers are significantly better at separating than nearly any team in the league, making Jackson’s life far easier. And although it is not the most relevant factor, Allen can match or even exceed Lamar in the intangibles. He can make any throw, has the stronger arm, and can scramble as well as any player. When his number is called, not many do it better. Much the same could be said for Jackson, he is a generational talent. The case for Josh, at the end of the day, is that he has nearly single-handedly defied expectations to put on a miracle of a season. Especially where he wasn’t even predicted to finish first in his own division. Lamar has a bit of an edge in stats, some more than others, yet Allen is more valuable to his team. It’s not just that Buffalo can’t win without him, it’s that they would not be even remotely competitive. Also to consider, Allen has played at an elite level even after fracturing his left hand, an injury sustained in the very first week of play. Due to the wide margin of victory the Bills tend to have, he has also sat out nearly 11 full quarters this year. While this would not substitute for loftier stats, it helps to put things in perspective.
The only other player who, in my opinion, should have a real chance to win the hardware is Saquon Barkley. Barkley, while he has helped turn the Eagles into arguably the best team in the league, plays running back. Unless he broke the single-season rushing record (which, in fairness, he easily could have had he not been benched in the final game of the season), he cannot be held in the same regard as a quarterback. The NFL MVP is usually a quarterback award. While sometimes unfair, this is because a quarterback commands the entire offense, and bears much more responsibility than a receiver or running back. In a battle between an elite quarterback and an elite running back, I am inclined to lean towards the former.
On social media, you will hear many members of Bills Mafia feel like Allen is “owed” one, due to the belief that Jackson stole the award from him last year, despite arguably playing worse. While the sentiment can be understood, it is not grounds for a sound debate. Whose turn it is to be owed one holds no weight in terms of a well-structured argument. That being said, voter fatigue is a real factor and if all things were equal, the player who has never won the chip is probably more likely to receive it. I don’t think the gap between the two primary MVP candidates, being Allen and Jackson, is as wide as the media or fans make it seem. I think Allen deserves it more due to what he was working with and the pressure to be superhuman, but I would not lament much if Jackson wins it for the second straight year. There is a very solid argument that Jackson has done more, especially with so many stats on his side. A quarterback can only work with what he has, and perhaps Allen cannot milk the inferior roster point to extinction. Either way, we as fans have been blessed to watch both of them, along with jaw-dropping performances by the likes of Burrow, Barkley, and more. As the Super Bowl matchup between the Chiefs and Eagles wasn’t what many fans were hoping for, it is possible that the winner of this year’s MVP is what takes over the conversation this week.
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Great article!