Predicting Khamzat Chimaev versus Dricus Du Plessis reminds me of writing a book report without reading the book. In terms of Chimaev, there is a more clearly defined fighting style. “Borz” wants to dominate his opponent with relentless pressure, utilizing his otherworldly grappling to ensnare his opponents in quicksand as quickly as possible. Dricus, by comparison, wins by… the power of friendship? It is a running joke that is not entirely unfounded. Du Plessis’s style looks as though he is reinventing the wheel in real time. Hail Mary-esque takedowns, Streetbeefs-style punches, and an uncanny ability to pull a rabbit out of his hat whenever he seems to need it. The point is, he does not always look the part of a professional fighter, much less a champion. Yet, he can no longer be discounted as an Adult Swim character. The man is winning, and his inherently goofy style prevents onlookers from appreciating just how great he truly is. No matter how skilled an adversary he is facing, it just has not seemed to matter. One would think that surely such a “sloppy” fighter would have been exposed by now, right? Far from it. Against Robert Whittaker, a former champion and wonderfully versatile fighter, DDP found comfort in the chaos to deliver a second-round finish. Against Israel Adesanya, one of the most dangerous counterstrikers the sport has ever seen, he remained standing, perplexing the sniper. Against the monotonous yet defensively ironclad Sean Strickland, DDP bested him twice, breaking Strickland’s nose in the second bout.
The point I am making is that no matter how excellent his opposition is, or how vulnerable he looks, when the bullets are flying, give me Dricus Du Plessis more often than not. Yet, all rules have exceptions, and this is one such occasion. I am favoring Khamzat Chimaev to quite literally take down the South African. Chimaev, while he has shown cracks in his armor in the past, possesses a style and momentum that DDP has not seen. Before I am bombarded with casual accusations (damned if you do, and damned if you don’t) stay with me now. This is a very close fight, and I am not leaning towards Khamzat just because of his popularity. Before delving into the actual notes, I would like to point out two key factors that stood out to me.
Firstly, Chimaev is one of the few championship-caliber fighters that DDP has faced who are on the upswing. Much the same could be said about Khamzat, in fairness, as their resumes are somewhat comparable. However, Chimaev is one of the most feared fighters on the roster for a reason. While not invincible, he just does not lose, and is an unstoppable force at his best. He is not a guy who has been back-and-forth in the win/loss category in recent years. At least in the early rounds, all one can seem to do is try to survive. By comparison, many of DDP’s recent wins have been against guys that are not as incredible as they appear or as they once were. Whittaker, while good, has become somewhat of a gatekeeper. Adesanya, after conquering the summit that is Alex Pereira, seems to have run out of gas, now dropping three in a row against elite fighters. Strickland, while a former champion, is just not all that dangerous, more known for his defense and point fighting. Chimaev is an undefeated finisher with all the momentum in the world on his side. He is young and hungry, unlike DDP’s prior opposition. Like I mentioned, this is not a matter of comparing resumes. I can think of a few Chimaev wins that have not aged well, although the Usman victory reflects nicely. It is all about momentum, and while DDP has looked vulnerable in nearly every fight, Chimaev has been obliterating nearly everything in his path (not counting his immune system).
The second thing that stands out to me is that DDP has never faced a true five-star grappler like Chimaev. The most comparable fighter would be Derek Brunson, who was past his prime and tired so badly that he could barely maintain his posture in the second round. Many of DDP’s recent bouts have been against fighters where there was not such an imminent danger. I am not saying these fellows were not capable of finishing, nor am I saying that they were point fighting (except perhaps Strickland). They just were not Khamzat Chimaev. Whittaker is not known for his finishes. Strickland certainly is not. Adesanya has knockout power but prefers to dance on the outside and counterstrike. Perhaps this is why they lose, because DDP does not abide by their rules of engagement. He makes the fight ugly and bamboozles, forcing the other martial artist to play a game they don’t know the rules to. Chimaev is not so strict. He walks right into the fire and charges in headfirst with a clear game plan to get the fight to the ground. To summarize: he is not afraid to get his hands dirty.
Although I don’t necessarily believe Khamzat will take DDP down at will (DDP is large and strong, with solid takedown defense) he will end up completing a takedown nonetheless. It will likely be early, as Khamzat is a buzzsaw right out of the gate, taking down Holland, Usman, and Whittaker nearly instantaneously. This is nothing new for Du Plessis, he has hit the mat more than once. He relies on his strength and ability to create space to build up to his feet. The issue is that while opponents have had success wrestling him down, they cannot keep him there for long. Khamzat can, and he probably will. Chimaev is a three-time Swedish freestyle wrestling champion, known for blending brute force with surgical technique on the ground. Not to summon MMA math, but DDP has been taken down by fighters inferior to Khamzat. While DDP has improved, much like Khamzat, I do not believe he will be able to completely nullify the takedown. Chimaev is adept at using his pressure to force the opponent into a corner or to make a mistake. Fighters feel pressure to be watertight against him because any wrong movement could lead to them staring up at the ceiling with Chimaev in a dominant position.
Chimaev will shoot as soon as he wants, sometimes even without a proper setup. He is just that insane in the grappling department. Opponents like Whittaker have found success using strikes to enter a takedown against DDP. Khamzat does this often, advancing with his usual pressure, flashing a jab or cross to get the opponent to raise their guard and retreat, allowing him to safely enter the hips. Khamzat is also great at timing takedowns off of his opponent’s strikes. As soon as an opponent strikes, should they fail to manage distance, Chimaev is ready with a takedown, as shown with how he ducked a right cross from Li Jingliang to complete a double-leg takedown (among countless other examples).
I also believe he will succeed with takedowns because of how he usually enters into them. DDP has a strong Greco-Roman base, meaning he is better at attacking or defending takedowns from the waist up. While Chimaev will utilize his body lock, he typically favors a lower entry, sweeping out his opponent’s base. Being that DDP is not quite as proficient here, I do not think this matches up well for him. Additionally, Khamzat excels in transitional grappling, which I think is one of the most important facets to touch on, because DDP escapes in the transitions due to his ability to create space. His opponents were not able to hunt submissions without losing position, and they made mistakes that I cannot see Chimaev making. One particular instance came during the Brunson bout, where DDP was able to push Brunson over the top of him and sneak out the back door. Brunson was also reckless in jumping guillotine (and failing) once the fight rose to the feet. I cannot see Chimaev falling victim to either of the above, and certainly not the latter.
As mentioned, Chimaev sets himself apart in his control of the fight once it goes to the ground. Once an opponent is down, they typically stay there. This is due to Chimaev’s ability to turn his body into a glue trap, understanding what a fighter needs to get to their feet and taking away each base accordingly.
Below, against Jingliang, Khamzat exhibits tendencies that he maintains to this day. I’ll dissect this in the subsequent paragraph.
Once the fight is grounded, he deals with the situation much the same way as he does here. Notice how he first hooks Jingliang’s near side leg with his own so he cannot stand on it. He then incorporates the “Dagestani handcuff” to neutralize the far side arm. This is a way to maintain wrist control and also inhibit Jingliang (in this case) from building back up alongside the fence. Since Chimaev’s near-side arm is free, he can use this to swing away at his opponent, causing them to either try to either give up position to escape, or just accrue damage. Since Jingliang needs his left hand to post, he is trapped. He cannot pick that arm up to defend strikes, because then he loses the last post holding him up. Again, while this is just one example from years ago, Khamzat often finds ways to enter this exact position, doing something very similar against Whittaker. DDP has not encountered a man who can so relentlessly ensnare him. Khamzat always finds ways to make the opponent carry his weight, sometimes even dragging them down from the feet and suffocating them with pressure. Khamzat’s physicality is also noteworthy, literally ragdolling professional fighters and forcing them into position. It is like when the heavyweight wrestler finally learns BJJ. Look out.
Although I already touched on the transitional grappling component of this fight, I would like to elaborate further. DDP thrives on the chaos he can create, such as during scrambles, and escapes once his opponent either recklessly hunts a submission or overzealously switches a position. Khamzat will not give DDP nearly as much room to work. Watch the ground exchanges in Chimaev’s fights. As his opponent moves, so does he, always understanding where his weight needs to be. He seamlessly transitions from mount, side control, etc. Against Kevin Holland, this is exhibited to the fullest (yeah, yeah, I know, it’s Kevin Holland). Chimaev flowed between a body lock to initiate takedowns, smash passing the full guard, etc. In particular, Khamzat is a master of chain wrestling. All he needs is a grip before he can alternate between attacks until something inevitably works (Burns and Usman fights come to mind). A small detail that we might see rear its head in this fight is Chimaev’s use of variations of the Nelson hold. He does not utilize a full Nelson, but the fractional iterations of it. This lets him control his opponent’s head/neck and thus their entire body. We saw this against Holland, where he used it to crunch Holland’s head in and set up a D’Arce choke. Against DDP, this could be beneficial for Chimaev to immobilize the insanity that Dricus brings (far easier said than done).
DDP’s high guard is a common defensive maneuver that he incorporates quite well, especially given its limitations. As I have covered several times in previous articles, the high guard can work, but it has to be used properly. Covering up with the forearms in front of the face will not withstand a savvy opponent for long. Looping shots like overhands and hooks will bypass this guard. Being that DDP is a credentialed kickboxer, he’s aware of this. He finds success almost playing possum with this guard, using it to ward off just enough damage before he can land offense of his own. However, while it may work against strikes, it will not be as effective against takedowns. DDP often puts himself out of alignment by how he rolls with shots in his high guard, with his torso moving backwards and to the side as he is forced back. This, along with his hands being away from his hips, may present a path to victory in terms of Chimaev being able to notch takedowns.
While I am emphasizing Chimaev in this piece, because I am presenting an argument for him to win, Du Plessis is the champion for a reason. Looks can be deceiving, and they aren’t everything. While Chimaev has been training with Coach Cal, who will undoubtedly prepare him as well as any coach could, Chimaev’s cardio remains untested in a five-round title bout. We have seen him slow down before, something he absolutely cannot afford here. Chimaev could run marathons with David Goggins for all I care, cardio in an actual five-round fight is something different. There is a massive unknown here, and if Chimaev expends all his energy forcing a finish early, he could find himself paying for it later. By contrast, DDP has been in the championship rounds several times, and is never as tired as he appears. As long as he is standing, he is dangerous. Almost like a video game character charging up a special attack, he weathers the storm better than almost anyone.
DDP has also improved over the course of his career, although so has Khamzat. DDP’s nose surgery a couple of years ago lifted a weight off his shoulders and allowed him to fight more freely. Despite the toon force appearance, he has a wonderfully versatile striking and a more polished game than before. He keeps his chin down more, times his blitzes better, and keeps his hands high.
In a standup affair, I favor DDP. He just has a stronger background and more extensive toolkit here. DDP’s excellent low kicks (which Khamzat has shown vulnerability to) and stance switches have a strong chance to hurt and confuse Chimaev. Khamzat is not a combination puncher, and if he tires or finds himself failing to land takedowns, he may find himself quickly falling behind. The threat of the takedown also makes Chimaev’s striking look better than it is. I am not claiming he is a poor striker, but he is certainly there to be hit. While he strikes hard, and certainly can KO Dricus, he does not defend blows remarkably. He just presses forward and covers up. For instance, his subpar head movement against Burns led to him being cracked many times. I also think Chimaev’s ego may run away with him a bit here, while DDP will likely find greater success sticking to the game plan. Khamzat can’t afford a Burns situation, where he stays on the gas with reckless abandon. Granted, several years ago at this point, but I could certainly see DDP baiting him into such a situation.
As things stand this Saturday morning, I favor Chimaev. I don’t think “Stillknocks” will be able to use his usual tricks as effectively against such a lethal grappler in the prime of his career. The longer the fight goes, though, things change. In a summer filled with exciting fights, this might be the best one yet.
