Contrary to what Anthony Smith might believe, paper matters surprisingly little in a game of war. Styles make fights, not just rankings. While it is not on a PPV, there are few fights I am as excited about as Jean Silva versus Diego Lopes this weekend. I bring up rankings because while Lopes is currently ranked #2 at featherweight and recently fought for the title, Silva is ranked #10, with his best win being Bryce Mitchell in the division. If you’re a box score Stan, Lopes might seem to be the favorite. After all, he is higher up on the totem pole and just battled one of the greatest fighters of our generation, Alexander Volkanovski, in a contest where he almost found the finish. You have heard the boys at Around the Octagon say it countless times: styles make fights. Although Lopes is a fine athlete and a likable character, he possesses several tactical flaws. As I laid out in a previous breakdown of Jean Silva (which I highly suggest you read, as it will make this article easier to digest) Jean Silva is a complex knockout artist the likes of which Lopes has yet to see. Silva is not going to dance around the outside and chip away at the integrity of the defense like Volkanovski. Nor does he have a power disadvantage like many of Lopes’ prior opponents seem to have had against him. Lopes relies on his durability and heavy hands to wear down his foes, and he cannot afford to make his usual mistakes against a man who, for once, bests him at his strengths.
Moreover, Jean Silva has finished every opponent he has faced in the UFC, except for his Contender Series performance. I believe Silva is a better striker (in particular counterstriker), and that he is superior tactically as well as defensively. I also do not believe that Lopes’ BJJ will aid him significantly, as his wrestling will need to be elite for him to get Silva down. As I covered in my breakdown of Jean Silva, Silva is excellent at defending takedowns with his exceptional use of the down block. Silva toyed with Mitchell, an elite grappler, and while this in and of itself does not make an argument; Silva has rarely been taken down during his UFC tenure, and held down even less. Unless Silva was facing a fighter like Movsar Evloev, I don’t see Lopes presenting a true danger to Silva on the ground. It is unlikely Lopes will take Silva down, and even more unlikely that he can keep him there for a noteworthy period of time.
Before getting into the meat and potatoes of this article, I would like to clarify that I am in no way saying Silva will curbstomp Lopes. Predicting fights is exactly like gambling, anything can happen. Could Lopes catch Silva with a powerful strike? Of course. Will the step up in competition be too much for Silva, especially since this is his first five-round bout in the UFC? It is possible. I just don’t think the chances are all that high. That being said, I think that if Lopes IS to emerge victorious, he has to get ahead early. Silva starts slow at the start of the fight, processing information before he starts to make his move. Like fighting Batman, you cannot give him prep time. Being that Lopes himself is not a volume striker, he must use his pressure without being reckless and running into a counter. Lopes also has great low kicks, something that Silva has shown vulnerability to, though it has not seemed to impact him much. Unlike Mitchell, who lacks force, Lopes’ calf kicks have enough sting to truly damage Silva and make him potentially alter his game. Silva sticks with an upright, wider base while on the feet, and being that his lead leg is so far forward, it is the most accessible target for Lopes. That being said, we have seen Silva successfully defend calf kicks when he chooses. A third possibility, if the fight even endures for long enough, is that Lopes simply outlasts Silva in the later rounds. I do not believe we have enough of a sample size to assume Lopes has a significantly better gas tank than Silva. Besides, this is likely not going the distance regardless. We have seen Lopes slow before (i.e. his fights against Brian Ortega and Dan Ige) and while I am not saying that Silva has Max Holloway-esque cardio by any means, these men have both been in three-rounders for most if not all of their careers. I can’t say that any advantage Lopes may have in this area will be statistically significant.
Being that this article is starting to take longer to get to the point than Game of Thrones, let me stop beating around the bush. Silva is a cleaner, accurate, and more mature striker. Lopes’ recklessness in the pocket and on the attack is likely going to get him hurt badly. Lopes makes more mistakes on the feet than Silva, and he can’t afford to make even a handful here.
As mentioned, Lopes’ best chance to emerge victorious or at least gain a lead is during the opening round, where Silva is generally a bit more passive. I still don’t think this will occur because I doubt that Lopes will be able to get paws on him and land clean. For one, we have seen Lopes struggle to corner and track down fighters before, even when he has them hurt. The best example here is the Volk fight, where Lopes had him stunned on numerous occasions, yet was unable to corner him. Lopes simply throws jabs and advances. Lopes did the same thing against Dan Ige, who had a rather remarkable performance taking the fight on a few hours’ notice. Once more, Lopes showed a mediocre ability to cut off the cage, allowing Ige to circle and skirt the fence, out of harm’s way.
Speaking of distance management, a key reason that several fighters have failed against Lopes is that they fail to manage the distance and strike radius properly. Lopes is not the most accurate of pugilists, but his chin and power mean he will usually get the better of the exchanges, even if he does not lead in the volume department. Lopes does his best work in the pocket and loves his hooks and right uppercuts in these scenarios. Put simply, he thrives in the chaos. Brian Ortega, for example, did not seem to understand this, although he did do a far better job at the end than at the beginning. He allowed Lopes to get inside and do what he does best. Ortega did not tag Lopes on the end of his punches, throwing jabs at a closer range than he should have. Important to note: Lopes excels at combinations stemming from slips. He slips inside (often avoiding a straight punch like a jab or cross) and then follows it up with knockout blows now that he is in his preferred range. Lopes almost always throws a right-to-left hand combination off the slip, favoring a right uppercut/hook to left hook combo.
Below, at around the opening 30 seconds, Ortega advances with a double jab. Lopes subsequently slips inside to avoid it, then throws a counter right hook to a left hook combination that almost finishes the fight. You’ll see how Ortega gets too close and doesn’t catch Lopes at the end of his punches. This allows Lopes’ counterpunches off the slip to work like a charm. I don’t see Silva making this mistake.
I think it is timely at this juncture to elaborate on the use of the potential takedown threat. I really do not think Silva has much to worry about here, Lopes does not present much that Silva has not seen. Lopes is not a top-tier wrestler, and in order for his BJJ to work, he has to get Silva to the mat first. Silva has shown excellence at defending takedowns during his time in the UFC Octagon. Lopes does love his collar ties and throws uppercuts once he has one, but as I will get into shortly, I think by the time he enters range, Silva is likely to clip him before he has a chance to work. If Lopes does clinch with Silva against the cage, I think Lopes is doing himself more harm than good. In order to complete a takedown, Lopes will need to stay tight to Silva, using his body to pressure the other fighter. Silva enjoys deploying a ninja choke setup in this scenario and will use Lopes’ forward momentum to set up this choke if he is not careful. If Lopes tries to go lower and score a double leg, especially from space, this too can play into Silva’s game. Silva’s down block is a versatile defense that also enables him to land offense. Silva is able to use his left arm to shove away the head to such a degree that he does not even need his right arm to defend. Instead, he punishes the attempt with devastating right hands and elbows. When Lopes shot low against Dan Ige, Ige was able to find success with elbows over the top. We see Silva do this all the time, and it will almost certainly cause significant damage to Lopes in this instance.
Lopes’ head movement and forward stance will not do him any favors against a fighter who is such a sharpshooter at timing blows to the head. Lopes is a bit like Justin Gaethje. They are not slouches by any means, but they will wade into the fire hoping that their opponent gets burned more than they do. Lopes does not block blows well, particularly jabs. The Volk fight was the finest example of this, bar none. Lopes, the opposite of Silva, has a forward-leaning stance with his chin in front of his hips, dipping side to side in rhythm. When looking at the disparity between the significant strikes between Volk and Lopes, this explains some of why that is. Lopes is easier to hit as he leads with his face. I am not saying it is exaggerated, but it is something to keep in mind. It shouldn’t need to be said that Lopes may be vulnerable against a fellow bruiser like Jean Silva with this type of stance. By contrast, Silva leans back, with his head more in line with or even behind his hips. Like a praying mantis, this allows him to be out of the typical blast radius and encourages pull counters.
The Volk fight will be the most common one I reference, both because it was Lopes’ most recent performance and also because it was the one that highlighted his weaknesses most glaringly. Volkanovski was wonderful with the first line of attack, that being his long jab. He clipped Lopes over and over again. Being that Lopes is not a quantity striker, he quickly fell behind in terms of significant strikes. Volk, unlike Ortega, exhibited a masterclass in guerrilla warfare, jabbing and keeping Lopes biting with feints. Volk also incorporated something of a swivel jab, altering trajectory to get around Lopes’ high hands. Volk frustrated Lopes with his left hand, slapping Lopes’ lead hand aside to set up follow-up punches. Volk also attempted to hold Lopes’ lead wrist, thereby somewhat controlling his offense.
So, what does all this mean? Bear in mind that Silva fights in a similar fashion, although he does not jab nearly as frequently and possesses a shorter reach than Volk. From my earlier Silva article, you may recall that Silva employs plenty of gamesmanship, feinting, and toying with his food. Silva also regularly utilizes the double post or “mummy guard”, lining his hands up with his opponent’s wrists. By essentially holding their hands, Silva protects himself from the brunt of heavy blows due to this barrier, while also being able to line up his own offense. Volk annoyed Lopes at the edge of range, and Silva can do much the same. When we keep in mind that Lopes favors slipping inside, then throwing opposing power hooks, Silva’s style and masterful control of space will make it tough for Lopes to gain entry in the first place.
One of Silva’s most entertaining tools is his elbows, which he may set up by holding or at least aligning his hands with his opponent’s wrist(s). Below, Evloev grabs Lopes’ lead wrist to land a right elbow, although he eats a couple of hooks due to failing to maintain control/distance.
Furthermore, Lopes does not seem to make necessary adjustments all that quickly. Usually, he does not need to, as his opponents need either incredible firepower or IQ to withstand the storm. Yet, he falls victim to the same sort of attacks or fails to adapt as his opponent changes tactics. Both Ige and Ortega seemed to gather something of a second wind and find success towards the back half of the fight. Volkanovski was able to land an overhand right constantly, which Lopes had no answer for.
A claim is nothing without evidence, so let’s look at how Volk torched Lopes’ defense. Volk’s head movement and precision allowed him to win the majority of exchanges in the pocket, whereas Lopes was just swinging for the bleachers and not being as defensively cognizant. Lopes swings from his hips and does not bring his hand(s) back to his face. In the first round, as Lopes dips his head in rhythm, Volk lands an overhand right, and while Lopes times a counter right hand well, he is caught with his right guard down as Volk stumbles him with a left hook. Lopes seems to have trouble when a fighter slips inside his guard (ironic considering he tends to do this with his own offense), which is how Volk continued to land his overhand right literally all night. Volk’s head was way off the centerline, so Lopes’ uppercuts did not land cleanly through the middle. Against a fighter in Silva whose left hook is basically the featherweight version of Poatan’s, what is the one thing that must be protected at all costs? The right side of the head. Lopes, on numerous occasions, has not done so properly and it has led to him being tagged.
When defending, Lopes does a nice job of maintaining a high guard when he isn’t trying to land punches. Yet when it comes time to actually defend, he is fairly static. His defense reminds me a bit of myself when it came time to spar. Too immobile, simply covering up and/or retreating linearly. This is a recipe for disaster against Silva, if he can tee off on you or easily track you down.
This next point is probably the strongest one I can make. Pull counters, arguably Silva’s forte. Silva’s split-second reaction time and stellar upper body control enable him to time that check left hook, his most dangerous tool. Like we established, Lopes is rather uncontrolled within reach. Bearing in mind that he will likely be swinging and missing often against Silva, this means he is leaving his chin open, particularly the right side. Lopes often throws his right uppercut on its own, without a setup. What is to stop Silva from swaying back and timing a check left hook once Lopes’ right arm detaches from his face? Volkanovski had a heavy amount of success with pulls and pull counters. Volk used his sharp fight IQ and strategy to strike, pull back, then strike again, or some variation of it. Let’s take a glance at a few specific cases. Due to copyright concerns, I am unable to insert video(s), so bear with me here.
Early in round four, Lopes throws a left hook that Volk pulls back from, then ducks under Lopes’ follow-up right hand to land his own overhand right to left hook combination. At the very end of the round, Lopes throws the right uppercut on its own, with Volk pulling from it then landing the overhand right, and pulling again. Silva is not as credentialed a fighter as Volkanovski. However, you cannot tell me that Jean Silva, a standup virtuoso, would not capitalize in the scenarios. His style is literally built to lean back, pull, and counter.
In the interest of brevity, I will conclude here. The bottom line is that Diego Lopes is surprisingly more raw and reckless than Jean Silva, no matter how much the latter’s barking might convince you otherwise. Lopes is an accomplished enough striker to allow his punching power to win him bouts, and has a tough enough chin to allow him to get to that point, but not against Silva. To rehash, I believe Silva’s takedown and submission defense will be enough to nullify the grappling component of this matchup, particularly when considering how Lopes often initiates takedowns. So, in a fight that will likely play out on the feet, I’m going for the man with the deadlier arsenal. Lopes’ tendency to throw power hooks in the pocket from his hips, as well as throw heavy blows from space will be his undoing in this bout. Lopes has been outstruck in the pocket on numerous occasions, and if he didn’t possess such a granite chin, he would likely have been finished. Volkanovski found plenty of success landing offense and avoiding the majority of the damage coming back his way. While Silva is a completely different fighter, counter striking is his bread & butter. I do not see Lopes being disciplined enough to avoid that kill shot of a check left hook Silva throws. As described ad nauseam, Volkanovski thrived off of pulls and pull counters, and Silva is fairly comparable. The key difference is that Silva has true one-punch knockout power, something Volkanovski does not. Volk stumbled Lopes, Silva will sleep him. Silva’s modified “mummy guard” and backward-leaning stance will also allow him to keep Lopes away and prevent him from bypassing his shields. When considering how talented Silva is at fighting on the retreat, Lopes’ pressure may not even have much impact. Silva may be ranked #10 in the world, but there are certainly not ten featherweights better than him. There is a reason even Aljamain Sterling admitted that he wanted no part of Jean Silva. Diego Lopes is good, but he is not a sophisticated puzzle to figure out. Look for “Lord Assassin” to add another feather to his cap, and with a victory over the #2 featherweight in the world, a title shot might just be next.
