Heavyweight contests in Mixed Martial Arts are a lot like fights in the stands at an NFL game. They don’t look like the sharpest tools in the shed, but they are certainly entertaining. It is well known that this largest division is also the least technical. Whoever lands first wins, and you won’t see too much of the laser-focused fight IQ or crispness that are observed in the lighter weight classes. Basically just two grizzlies going at it. For this reason, the Heavyweight division is rather top-heavy, comprising essentially preliminary fighters with a few truly elite gentlemen making up the top of the pyramid. Tom Aspinall is a refreshingly well-rounded Heavyweight and a notable exception to what a large fighter is predicted to be. There is a reason even the great Jon Jones would rather become a master of mental gymnastics than risk facing Aspinall. Aspinall does not possess many of the weaknesses that his peers do. He is not a slow, lumbering knockout artist. He is quick, athletic, technical, and well-versed in every discipline. He is not perfect, but he is likely as close as it gets. Even the most dangerous of heavyweights often have their downfalls. Ciryl Gane is a fancy standup artist, but lacks a ground game. Derrick Lewis has knockout power but lacks everything else. Curtis Blaydes is a solid overall fighter, but not truly the best at anything. Aspinall is something else; he is not a one-trick pony and is adept at nearly everything. This is probably why Jones is averse to fighting him: he cannot expose any flaws. Aspinall faces Gane this coming Saturday, and while Gane is certainly no slouch, I believe he will eventually crumble. Gane fights like a dancer, elegant and almost choreographed, but he won’t be able to prance around an athlete like Tom. Let’s look at what makes Aspinall so dangerous and why his performances tend to be shorter than the commercial breaks.
From the beginning, Aspinall possessed different tools of the trade from his peers. Pairing peak athleticism with elite skill and power is like a man made in a lab. To have fantastic speed, power, and ground game is just suffering from success. Aspinall, like any fighter, performed several concepts well; he has simply expanded and added to his strengths while sealing his already minuscule weaknesses. One aspect that Aspinall is a master of is distance management. In a prior article, I touched on what Demetrious Johnson refers to as the “void,” or the space between fighters before entering striking distance. Aspinall is able to seamlessly cross the void and evade counterattacks. This allows him to pressure without being reckless. His quickness allows him to get in and out before the fight gets ugly. Aspinall will often be seen with his hands around his chest, arms rather outstretched. Certainly not just a brute, he is light on his feet with excellent footwork, circling and peppering his opponent with leg kicks. Aspinall’s feints and perpetual hand motion confuse his opponents, enabling him to pressure more effectively without actually facing as much peril.
Now, Aspinall’s movement and defense are not solely staying out of the way. I wish it were that simple. While he will leap back and reset, he cannot do that incessantly, as he will need to cross the void to land his own offense. Specifically, Aspinall has fantastic head movement and striking defense, resembling a modified Philly Shell. His head movement is especially beneficial when paired with his speed, as he can cross the void, throw that 1-2 that he favors (especially while pressuring), then avoid counterfire. So, Aspinall can close the distance faster than anyone in his division and get the better of exchanges without staying in the blast radius for too long. We have seen Alex Pereira do something similar with his head movement, especially in the finishing sequence against Khalil Rountree Jr. Measured power, strike, pull, then strike again. I wish I could pull as well as Tom Aspinall, but alas, I don’t have as much luck.
As seen below against Alexander Volkov, Aspinall throws a jab, cross, then left hook, subsequently swaying back from a left hook counter. The man moves like a middleweight, and it is poetry to watch.
Against Andrei Arlovski, Aspinall used evasive head movement to take it a step further and return punches. As Arlovski throws a combination, Tom leans back to land a counter left hand. This same sequence is repeated fairly similarly a short while later. Isn’t that the name of the game, to hit and not get hit back?
Head movement, as we know, is not enough. So, let’s observe what Tom does with his hands (don’t comment, Nina). From the start of his UFC career, Aspinall has usually been seen with a higher right guard and lower left hand. As Tom incorporates pulls and pull counters, he remains fundamentally guarded, with that right hand high around his chin. The lower left hand, meanwhile, is often seen folded across his beltline, with a high left shoulder.
See below for a still frame of Tom’s defense in his most recent bout against Curtis Blaydes.
As Tom sways back, he may avoid the punch/kick entirely. Even if he doesn’t, he has his right guard up and his head behind his left shoulder to shrug off blows. Heavyweights are generally sloppy, but not Tom Aspinall.
Check out this neat display of maneuverability against a juggernaut in Sergei Pavlovich. Aspinall keeps his right arm up with a high left shoulder, pulls from the left hand, rolls off the right, then pulls yet again from the left.
We’ve beaten a dead horse in talking about Aspinall’s physical attributes and agility, but haven’t talked as much about how it directly benefits him. Bear in mind that heavyweights, even the quicker ones, cannot maintain defense for very long when throwing combinations or when in exchanges. So they are usually seen either getting as much as they give or having to stop and reset in between their offensive bursts. Aspinall doesn’t have as much of a cooldown period. Once his foe slows or resets, Aspinall is able to quickly bridge the gap. Thus, in a firefight, Aspinall is the man with the faster trigger. Aspinall’s opponents will have more openings in their defense than he does, and they are also typically far slower. Aspinall is able to chain together combinations and deny the other man the opportunity to get their bearings. It does help that Aspinall’s go-to shots are straight punches, which allows him to stay farther back and hit the target more rapidly.
It’s important to remind the audience that Aspinall’s talents do not begin and end on the feet. A black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, much of his background actually commenced on the mats. His strength, size, and top pressure allow him to actually implement a game plan besides the standard ogre ground and pound. When bridging the void, he always has the option to level change. Aspinall is adept at double-leg takedowns and trips. Against both Arlovski and Volkov, he found heavy success with his grappling. Against Arlovski, Aspinall timed a gorgeous double-leg takedown once his opponent threw a low kick, and was able to eventually finish the contest with a rear-naked choke. Against Volkov, Aspinall was again able to avoid a punch or kick in order to level change. As Volkov threw a cross, Tom once more was able to complete a double-leg takedown. This was actually his second takedown of the fight, accomplishing the first via a body lock and trip. Regardless, during both takedowns, Aspinall attempted to isolate an arm, first with a kimura, then a straight armbar. In both cases, Tom remained on top in either side control or half guard. His best work here comes from his selective ground and pound and elbow/shoulder impact. In both of the above sequences against Volkov, Aspinall made his opponent uncomfortable via crossfaces and heavy pressure. This pressure right into the face of Volkov forces him to move, opening up either ground and pound or a submission threat, which was eventually realized.
Thus far, we know that Aspinall has a versatile, powerful style with minimal weaknesses. His defense is technical and excellent, and his shot choice, while predictable, allows him to enhance his distance management with a linear trajectory. Surely he has weaknesses, though, right? Of course, but it’s difficult to say for a man whose career octagon time is just a single Belal Muhammad fight. We could go the lazy route and pick cardio as a flaw, simply because we don’t have much data. It is possible, but I don’t believe an athlete as cerebral as Tom would neglect this category. He has been a victim of his own greatness in walking through opponents. A true actual inadequacy might be his predictability, to expand on the opening sentence in this paragraph. Tom’s head movement and tempo help mitigate this, but a savvy opponent who watches film knows that the 1-2 is coming. Against Tybura, Tom crossed the void quickly with a 1-2 but was clipped by a counter right hand. If an opponent can slip the jab, they can expose him before the cross lands. Far easier said than done, facing a fighter with all the advantages, but it is possible.
In the interest of attention span as well as Aspinall’s actual fight time and lack of data, I have kept this article concise. Based on what we know, he looks every bit the part of a true virtuoso, possessing a craftiness usually found with men half his size. He wins so quickly, not because of lucky windmill punches, but because of true skill. I do not believe Aspinall will be able to walk circles around Ciryl Gane, because Gane, like Tom, fights with the flexibility of a lighter athlete. Therefore, the movement and speed advantage will be less pronounced. I think this only delays the inevitable. Obviously, this is a Heavyweight and anything can happen, but Gane has been outwrestled by Francis Ngannou, who isn’t exactly Khabib Nurmagomedov. He has been tapped out within the first round by Jon Jones (admittedly, no shame in this) and cracked by Tai Tuivasa. Clearly, that is different, as styles make fights, but my point remains that Gane certainly appears more vulnerable than Tom. For once, Gane meets another who can match him at his strengths and take advantage of his weaknesses. While Ciryl may last longer than most, his chances of holding UFC gold may be Gane after this weekend. Until I see otherwise, Aspinall is just that good.
