The UFC has had its share of pros and cons, particularly during this calendar year. However, fans’ proclivity to favor recency bias would tend to indicate that the final fight card of the year has the potential to make the most impact. Unpredictability is perhaps the only constant in MMA. Cards that look like an Avengers-level threat can often be underwhelming, while tepid-looking Apex cards can look like something out of an anime. Based on what we know, though, there is every reason to be excited about the main card of UFC 323. The old guard versus the new, for the most part. Whether for betting purposes or simply love of the game, there are likely more than a few of you heavily invested in the outcomes of these contests. In my humble opinion, here is who I am picking to emerge victorious, as well as the why.
Kicking us off on the main card is Jan Blachowicz versus Bogdan Guskov. Blachowicz’s age stands out as a concern, and he is certainly nearing the end of his career. At light heavyweight, I do not think the Unc status will be as much of a factor as in a lighter weight class, but it is a very real consideration as he nears 43. Also important to remember is that Blachowicz is far from a Tony Ferguson situation. Even in his recent losses, he has always delivered highly competitive performances, losing only in decisions. His recent bouts could certainly be said to have an element of bad luck to them. He fought to a draw for the vacant LHW strap against Magomed Ankalaev, lost by a hair’s breadth to Alex Pereira, and dropped a unanimous decision against Carlos Ulberg, who very well may be fighting for the title next. Losses require context, and Blachowicz has been neck and neck with championship-level athletes even in this area of his career. Blachowicz is a decorated Muay-Thai-based fighter also possessing a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. His opponent, Bogdan Guskov, is currently ranked at number eleven in the division. Since dropping his UFC debut, he has tallied four finishes in a row in impressive fashion, defeating names like Ryan Spann and Nikita Krylov. He is a well-rounded fighter, nearly ten years younger than Blachowicz. As I mentioned, Blachowicz has only ever faced high-level competition for the last few years, though he has not won a fight since 2022 and has not been very active. However, this is reminiscent of Dustin Poirier versus Benoit St. Denis. It is time to see if the mainstay can still compete with the new wave of fresher, talented prospects. Blachowicz may not be entirely washed, but he is not as sharp as he once was, and Guskov has had every one of his 18 professional victories come by way of finish, mostly from strikes. Blachowicz seems like time is passing him by, and was visually frustrated against Ulberg. He can still offer a very competitive performance, but his best days are behind him. I have Guskov notching the victory.
The next matchup on this card is an enticing one, and hopefully entertaining as well. Henry Cejudo is one of the greatest champions to ever step into the octagon, but he has fallen from grace in recent years. I love listening to Cejudo, and his mind for mixed martial arts is world-class. This is why it is frustrating to view some of his recent performances. I am not sure if it is a matter of his body not being able to keep up with his mind since he came out of retirement, or the fact that the champions he has faced (Merab Dvalishvili, Aljamain Sterling) are just that good. Regardless, kind of like Blachowicz, this is a “prove it” situation. Cejudo still has the benefit of the doubt, given the status of his prior opposition, but that will run its course if he loses to Payton Talbott. Even though most, including myself, would say Cejudo has declined, I do not think it will be to the extent that he loses this contest. Talbott is a lethal striker and the larger man. Yet, although he has worked in this area, he is still clearly deficient on the ground as compared to Cejudo. Like Henry loves to boast to anyone who will listen, he is a former Olympic gold medalist in wrestling (2008). Less than a year ago, we saw Talbott utterly dominated and controlled on the ground against the likes of Raoni Barcelos. It is a known fact that the ground is the blueprint to beat Talbott. Easier said than done, especially since Talbott has about a six-inch advantage in both height and reach, and who knows what else (ask Frank Ocean, I guess). In Cejudo’s last outing against Song Yadong, he found difficulty closing the distance, and his legendary chin was tested as he was cracked over and over. While Talbott at this stage may not yet be as good as Yadong, distance control may again be an issue. I think Cejudo has just enough gas in the tank to get it done against Talbott, but with a loss here, I can’t vouch for him any longer.
The bangers continue with one of my personal favorite fighters (and let’s be real, everyone’s) in Brandon Moreno taking on Tatsuro Taira in a flyweight bout. With Moreno being in constant title contention and being ranked number two, this is a ripe opportunity for Taira to prove that he can win against the best the UFC has to offer. At age 25, Taira has plenty of time to hone his skillset, but I do not believe the challenge will be too much for him. After all, he did go toe-to-toe with repeat title challenger Brandon Royval, dropping a split decision. Aside from that lone close loss, Taira is undefeated in his MMA career. Disregarding Royval, Taira has not faced any other top-five competition in the division, but that alone does not mean he loses. At first glance, Moreno clearly holds the advantage in both fight IQ and experience, and is still in his prime at 31 years of age. While he has been a bit back-and-forth in the win/loss column since his second run in the UFC, he has never been finished during this time period, and has nearly only fought champions or title challengers since 2019. His resume speaks for itself: Deiveson Figueiredo (2-1-1), Alexandre Pantoja (0-2 against one of the greatest Flyweights ever), Kai Kara-France (2-0), and Royval (1-1). In his latest performance, he took out yet another title contender at the time, Steve Erceg, and is now riding a two-fight win streak. This is not simply another case of a veteran on a skid, looking to finally tally a win against a greener opponent. In terms of the fight, Moreno is the more versatile fighter, capable of succeeding wherever the fight may lead. Being that he is a credentialed grappler, it seems like it would behoove Moreno to get the fight to the mat. Whether he emphasizes that in his game plan remains to be seen, as he has been prone to making questionable in-fight decisions before. Important to note is that Taira is also very solid on that mat, and Moreno will have to be wary. Still, I am taking Moreno to win a close decision here. I feel like the experience is still a tad too much for Taira at this juncture.
Coming up next, we have what should be everybody’s favorite matchup on the card: Alexandre Pantoja versus Joshua Van. Coming off of his statement victory over Royval, Van is setting a record pace at only 24 years of age. Clean, technical boxing with improved takedown defense, Pantoja could find himself getting clipped and overwhelmed if he is not careful. Yet, there is a reason why Pantoja is as venerated as he is. While he may look vulnerable at times or appear to coast to decisions in the later rounds, he is never out of the fight. In fact, it may be the issue of coasting or cardio (if you can even call it that) that is his lone weakness, but it cannot even be said that Van will capitalize on this, given his lack of experience in five-round fights. Joshua Van has a lot going for him, but Pantoja is simply the undisputed best in the world at Flyweight, bar none. As touched upon by Zach (hopefully all of our readers also listen to the podcast), Pantoja should not experience heavy difficulty getting the fight to the ground and taking the back. It could be said that Van has solid takedown defense, but I agree with Zach that Van has never faced anyone in the same stratosphere as Pantoja in terms of grappling. Pantoja is a proficient enough striker to stand and trade, and durable enough to take punishment even if it takes him more than a round to open up his arsenal. All Pantoja needs is one takedown, and Van is still too new to be able to match the plethora of data and mat time that Pantoja has been able to develop. Pantoja is not unlike the 2024 Chiefs. It may be close, but he almost always finds a way to emerge victorious. I believe it will be too much, too soon for Van, but he is right at the cusp.
For me personally, the main event actually flew under the radar, as I was looking forward to the co-main. Here we have the current champion, Merab Dvalishvili, taking on Petr Yan for the second time. I am not saying Yan is an easy out, but if there was a clear victor on any matchup on the main card, it would be this one. Merab is quite literally outpacing his opposition, outlasting even the most tenacious opponents with his otherworldly endurance. Even if an opponent has early success, unless they finish him, Merab will lap them. Nobody, even Umar Nurmagomedov, could escape the relentless takedown threat. Aside from his rare submission over Sean O’Malley, Merab is not a finisher with his grappling. He excels in forcing the takedown, holding his opponent on the ground or cage, and landing offense. Dvalishvili does not seem to mind if his opponent rises to their feet (which they often do against him). He simply takes them down yet again and repeats the process, wearing them out. A sniper like O’Malley could not find a kill shot. Nurmagomedov could not really wrestle him. Cory Sandhagen, a wonderfully complete mixed martial artist and perhaps the most creative striker in the division, could not defeat Merab with any of his tools. Dvalishvili has stat-maxed cardio and wrestling to the point where it completely overpowers anything else. Add in the fact that his striking has measurably sharpened (see the Sandhagen fight), and I believe Merab is the best he has ever been. I would not go so far as to say Dvalishvili completely blankets Yan like in their first contest, but I do think he is the clear winner here. Yan is an amazing fighter, and during his time as champion, it seemed that the only thing that could defeat him was the rulebook (sorry, Aljo). Yan has never lost by way of finish, even after three straight decision losses, two via split decision. He has rebounded from that tenuous stretch, riding a three-fight win streak, all against challenging athletes. Yan’s boxing has been among the best in the UFC for a long time, and his grappling is quite good (see the Yadong fight); it is just not what Merab’s is. I think Yan has improved and matured, learning from his mistakes, but Dvalishvili is just too much of a juggernaut. Yan will need to be perfect, and I don’t know that the chances are high that he will be. Yan’s traditionally slow starts do not pair well with Merab’s persistent onslaught, and he will likely need to force a finish or risk the fight slipping away for a second time. In terms of probability, the smart money is on Dvalishvili.
As always, anything can transpire within the confines of the Octagon, and hindsight is always 20/20. Every opponent and fight is unique, and the best we can do is go by what we think we know. Enjoy the fights, and hopefully my predictions perform just a pinch better than my parlays.
